Decline in production commencement + spread of price war: Continuous severe challenges for PV frame profile industry [SMM analysis]

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SMM July 10th News:

PV aluminum extrusion: The operating rate of PV frame extrusion among sampled enterprises continued to decline this week. According to the SMM survey, some small and medium-sized producers in Anhui revealed that the processing fee in the industry had fallen below 2,000 yuan/mt, putting further pressure on profit margins. Top-tier enterprises in east China stated that although export orders could partially offset the weakness in the domestic market, it was a foregone conclusion that domestic module scheduled production would significantly weaken in the second half of the year. Despite the gradual exit of backward capacity and the increase in industry concentration, some enterprises were still sharply reducing prices to maintain production, with the widespread phenomenon of "volume discount," which was detrimental to the healthy development of the industry. According to the SMM survey, PV extrusion frame manufacturers in east China, Hebei, and south-west China reported that a decline in July production was a foregone conclusion. Module producers had low willingness to place orders, enterprises had insufficient orders on hand, and there was little significant increase in the future. It was necessary to continuously monitor changes in domestic policies and the implementation of overseas orders.

Raw material prices: During the period (July 7, 2025 - July 10, 2025), the center of the average spot price of spot aluminum declined. The SMM A00 weekly average price was 20,693.3 yuan/mt, down 0.01% from the previous weekly average price. Overall, the domestic favorable macro environment remained unchanged, but the impact of overseas tariffs needed to be vigilant. On the fundamental side, the fluctuating state of domestic aluminum ingot inventory provided support for aluminum prices, but the weakening of downstream demand during the off-season was evident. Spot premiums/discounts continued to widen, and it was necessary to closely monitor changes in inventory and demand in the future. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract was expected to trade around 20,500-21,000 yuan/mt, and LME aluminum was expected to trade around $2,550-2,660/mt.

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